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August 21, 2006

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Second Life and Macromyopia

3pointD transcribes a fascinating keynote talk by Mitch Kapor at the Second Life Community Convention this weekend.

Also, he gives a name to an effect I am constantly citing:

One thing thatís very important to keep in mind is something called Macromyopia. For people who are inside a new phenomenon like Second Life, we tend to overestimate the short-term effects. We think more great things are going to happen sooner than they typically do. Conversely, we underestimate the long-term impact.

Or: In the short-term, things change slower than we expect them to. In the long-term, they change more than we ever imagined they would. Now I know what to call it!

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Posted August 21, 2006 at 10:50 | Comments (4) | Permasnark
File under: Briefly Noted, Technosnark

Comments

I've always enjoyed this proverb:

Men overestimate what they can accomplish in a year. But they underestimate what they can accomplish in five.

Don't know where I got it. Perhaps that little planner they gave out at MSU orientation.

That thing was full of wisdom! Seriously.

On this subject, Valley sage Paul Saffo says: "Never mistake a clear view for a short distance."

Posted by: Chris on August 21, 2006 at 11:47 PM

I really like that formulation, Chris, b/c it's physically as well as cognitively profound.

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