June 30, 2006

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In the Future, We’ll All Be Older

Reihan Salam on futurism in Slate. Matt Yglesias on Reihan Salan.

My favorite future-y maxim has always been that the world changes much slower than we think it will, but ultimately far more than we imagine. (I’m pretty sure there is a more elegant formulation, but I can’t remember what it is or who said it.) Flying cars? Mmmnot yet. Internet? HOLY CRAP.

Beyond that, I’m still grappling with how to make sense of demographic projections. Clearly I think they are somewhat powerful, and Salam cites Philip Longman, who has been making the demographic argument that patriarchy is on its way back because, well, patriarchal families make more babies.

And yet: Do sheer numbers really tell the tale? How, exactly, should demographics inform our imaginings about the future?