April 16, 2008
Somebody, Please Make Some News Tonight
For somebody who works in journalism, I really strongly dislike the American press sometimes. It boils over into out-and-out gall during Presidential elections, when news is scarce, and reporters start slavering after the musings of pundits like starved dogs. We find ourselves incapable of sustaining any significant focus on issues, or even stylistic distinctions between candidates that have real implications on how they will lead. Instead, we seed these manufactured clouds of perceptions and expectations over and over, hoping against hope to produce a storm. And if we should happen upon a gaffe or a gotcha moment, we actually praise the gods and we feast.
Bittergate, day six.
... Read more ....
April 13, 2008
My Excuse
Matt says,
I've been in St. Louis. So I pass you off to Mr. Carmody for canny political commentary.
April 9, 2008
Four Days in Denver
Matt says,
Delightful. Lawrence O'Donnell, Jr., a West Wing writer, serves up a little speculative fiction on a brokered Democratic convention.
Hillary’s car is pulling away from the hotel. She spots Oregon senator Ron Wyden getting into his car. She has her car chase Wyden’s car. At a traffic light, she jumps out with a gang of Secret Service agents and they surround Wyden’s car. She climbs into Wyden’s car and rides with him, working on him to vote for her. When Wyden finally says he thinks only Obama can beat McCain, Hillary is ready for that. She tells Wyden that McCain’s winning the White House is the best thing that can happen for Wyden’s reelection in 2010, because the president’s party always loses seats in midterm elections. A Democratic president is going to make Wyden’s reelection that much tougher.
March 22, 2008
Just Under the Surface
[Quoting Melissa Harris-Lacewell.] "One of the things fascinating to me watching these responses to Jeremiah Wright is that white Americans find his beliefs so fringe or so extreme. When if you’ve spent time in black communities, they are not shared by everyone, but they are pretty common beliefs." ... What’s happening, I think, is that the Obama campaign has led many white Americans to listen in for the first time to some of the black conversation — and they are thunderstruck.Speaking as a fully assimilated Negro, with a white boyfriend and a surfeit of white friends, living in an overwhelmingly white neighborhood, it's hard for me to write about Obama's speech. There's a lingering note in Kristof's column that threatens to narrow and polarize this conversation just as it begins -- "You white folks just don't get it." Some even heard it in the speech itself, and it instantly deafened them to what was said; it sounds so much like assigning blame to non-blacks for something that they just cannot help. And for me, inhabiting the whitest world a black American man can inhabit, it's even more awkward to say that the note rings true. From the severity of the reaction to Jeremiah Wright's speeches, it seems that a large number of Americans, including many of my colleagues in the press, just had no idea.
In black communities, words like Wright's are commonplace.
Those words you're hearing over and over again on YouTube are not the rantings of a lunatic fringe, they are the frequent utterances of a sizable segment of black America. It's just that this time they've spilled out of our closed conversation in a dramatic way.
... Read more ....
File under: Self-Disclosure, Snarkpolitik, Society/Culture
March 7, 2008
Samantha Power's Resignation
Matt says,
Such a bummer. I cringed when I read the remark last night. Now one of my favorite figures in any candidate's campaign is out. I don't know how these things work at all, but I really hope she'll still be his unofficial foreign policy adviser.
Also: Why is it I love Samantha Power so much? First, there was her book, an exhaustive and exhausting account of the unchanging pattern of genocide, and why, despite our ability to recognize that pattern, we never stop it before it's too late. Then, there was hearing her speak about the book at the Nieman Narrative conference a few years back. Although she was young (34?) and vibrant, she had this weariness about her. Maybe she was just exhausted for reasons completely unrelated to the subject matter, but you couldn't help thinking, "God, the things this poor woman is cursed with knowing." To speak at length for years with the survivors of genocides all over the world, to see it happening again and be utterly powerless to stop it -- how do you have that kind of experience and not despair?
I was as excited as Robin about the prospect of Power in a major foreign policy position (which I really hope might still come to pass). When secretaries of state commonly can't bring themselves to utter the word "genocide," how amazing would it be to have a cabinet-level official with not only the experience to recognize the pattern of genocide, but also the moral will to call it by its name?
Of course, all these pretty things I'm saying about her shouldn't erase the fact that calling Hillary Clinton a monster was not only boneheaded, but really lowers the threshold given some of the actual, human-slaughtering monsters Power has known. But it really sucks when a mistake redounds to such an ill and public effect.
Update: Marc Ambinder cites anonymous sources from the Obama campaign who say Power was not asked to leave, in case you were wondering.
March 5, 2008
Politics, Emotion, and YouTube
Robin says,
Henry Jenkins and Stephen Duncombe talk Obama, YouTube, and emotional politics. (Second video down.)
Duncombe on the will.i.am Obama video: "It uses a language of emotions which one couldn't articulate in a logical sentence." He continues with an extended analysis of the "rhetoric that's embedded in the video" that is quite smart and revelatory.
Heard a new term from Jenkins in this exchange, too: "collective intelligence culture." I like it.
February 20, 2008
Lessig08
Robin says,
I live just a bit beyond the northern-most edge of his district, but I'm still very excited about the prospect of Larry Lessig running for Congress. If you think it's a good idea, too, stop by his site and drop him an email or something -- I take seriously his summons for a show of support.
Beyond Lessig, have you heard about any interesting congressional candidates? (Is "congressional" capitalized? No, right?) I'm super-curious to hear about interesting people and races.
Transformation won't come from a new executive alone -- he/she's going to need backup. And the legislative branch might be even more broken than the executive branch right now.
Update: Snarkmarket pal Sam Gustin interviews Lessig!
February 13, 2008
The Morning After
Matt says,
It’s the morning after the election. The President-elect calls you up and says, “You know, after this grueling, absurd campaign, I now see that the state of our democracy is something we have to grapple with right away. What should I do?”The Brennan Center for Justice posed this question to fifteen widely regarded personalities, including Hendrik Hertzberg, Anne-Marie Slaughter, Dahlia Lithwick, and David Rakoff. Check out their answers here. And add your answer here. (Via Hertzblog.)
February 6, 2008
Behind the Candidates
Having seen the name of Obama's chief economics adviser Austan Goolsbee appear on a few blogs recently, I've become curious about who else is on the teams of the two lead candidates. Here's what I've found:
The Chicago Tribune wrote a nifty round-up of Obama's team of advisers. In fact, it seems they wrote two.
Meanwhile, here's a brief Telegraph piece on Team Hillary. Here's a wonderful Washington Post write-up of the Clinton squad, "Hillaryland." An additional WaPo rundown. The articles themselves give you such an interesting picture of the candidates' leadership styles and expertise. And from these articles, here are some links on some of the big names (I'm likely to refine this list as I get time to look into it):
Team Hillary:
- Mark Penn: chief pollster and strategist
- Harold Wolfson: senior communications director (no Wikipedia link, using a NYTimes story)
- Patti Solis Doyle: campaign manager
- Mandy Grunwald: chief media consultant
- Leecia Eve: chief policy adviser
- Ann Lewis: senior adviser
- Terry McAuliffe: campaign chairman
Team Obama:
- Foreign policy/national security:
- Domestic policy:
- Staff:
- Mark Alexander: former campaign policy director
- Heather Higginbottom: campaign senior policy strategist (couldn't find much on her, but was kind of amazed to find that this Snarkmarket post was already among the results!)
- Karen Kornbluh: Senate policy director

February 5, 2008
Ethikai Aretai
Robin says,
I'm a sucker for Aristotelian lingo, and a sucker for Zephyr Teachout, so that makes me doubly susceptible to her endorsement of Obama's "ethikai aretai."
January 4, 2008
Astroturfing: Always Bad; Usually Obvious
"Astroturfing is a neologism for formal public relations campaigns in politics and advertising that seek to create the impression of being spontaneous, grassroots behavior."
For example, say you founded a non-profit dedicated to vetting charity organizations and grading them on their effectiveness. Your org is attracting some high-profile attention, but you're hankering for more. So you create accounts on a few well-trafficked websites. First, you pose as a naïf, adrift in a galaxy of charities, desperately seeking guidance. Then, under different accounts, you guide your little sockpuppet and any other interested parties right to your org. Step three, profit. Right?
Right, unless you attempt your ruse at the wrong site, where the users are savvy enough to see right through your act and call you on the mat. Now, your follies are on Digg and everywhere for all the world to see, and no amount of groveling will make amends. For shame.
I have to deal with minor astroturfing all the time on vita.mn (and pretty ridiculous astroturfing occasionally), and it's always a forehead-slapper. It's generally easy to spot, no matter how clever the offending party seems to think s/he is, and it cultivates a heaping mess of ill will. If you ever have the urge to misrepresent yourself online in a manner you think will advantage your company, don't do it. You will be found out, and it will be very unpleasant. Your exploits may even be exposed in New York Magazine. Just remember this mantra -- "Astroturfing makes an ass out of -- never mind, just don't do it.

File under: Snarkpolitik, Society/Culture, Technosnark
January 3, 2008
Into the Fold
Robin says,
Rolling Stone's Tim Dickinson on Obama and Iowa:
Obama's been drawing record crowds from San Francisco to Des Moines -- but there was always the question of whether he could produce a similar effect among real live voters.He did so in a way that no one predicted. 57 percent of the caucus goers tonight had never caucused before. Most impressive: As many people under thirty showed up as senior citizens.
That's fucking nuts is what that is. That's the Rock the Vote political wet dream that never ever comes true... actually coming true.
What this portends for Obama as a national candidate is something truly special. He's not only proven that he can draw the support of independents and open-minded Republicans. He's the one guy who can make the Democratic pie higher, bringing new, unlikely voters into the fold. If he could replicate this kind of support among young people in a general election, it's game over.
Super awesome.
November 30, 2007
China's New Markets
Robin says,
Interesting notes over at Tim Johnson's McClatchy blog on why China is just going to keep growing and growing and growing. He quotes a former Morgan Stanley economist:
Everybody in the world has too much money except the United States. Think about it. Even Russia has a $500 billion in foreign reserves. Even India has over, like, $200 billion in foreign reserves. India never had that kind of money before. This has very important implications for what happens next year. Emerging economies do not need to cut back. They can expand. [...]Even Africa has a lot of money. So emerging market trade in China is already half of China's trade growth. As American consumers need to rest, need to pass, suddenly emerging market trade is happening. And emerging market trade is right up China's alley because emerging markets export commodities, exactly what China needs -- oil, copper, iron ore -- exactly what China needs. And China exports cheaper consumer products and on top of that cheap capital goods, like pumps, like trucks...
This is truly the dawn of emerging market trade development.
Hmm.
November 7, 2007
No Democracy for You
Robin says,
Hey, speaking of revolutions, democracy, etc.: Read this harrowing NYRB piece on the triumph of Putinism in Russia. It's all terrible, but this part seems particularly bad:
Putin's team quickly accomplished their most important task -- the capture of television -- and once it had been completed, the country was subjected to pervasive, incessant propaganda that was far more skillful, effective, and all-encompassing than anything the Soviets ever conceived. The mass media have relentlessly hammered home images of Putin as a charismatic ruler leading a national renaissance, while portraying Putinism as the guarantor of stability and order. [...] In short, they have transformed all the diverse hypotheses about Putin's popularity from partial explanations into a single, dominant, and overwhelming reality.
"The capture of television." Wow. Worth remembering (for us internet nerds especially) that TV is still the medium that basically defines reality anywhere on earth that has, like, electricity and is not San Francisco or Tokyo.
P.S. "... more skillful, effective, and all-encompassing than anything the Soviets ever conceived" -- jeez!
October 23, 2007
A Good Hour
Robin says,
So I've mentioned Larry Lessig's new ten-year project on corruption before. Now I just finished watching his inaugural "alpha" lecture on the topic and it was terrific. An hour long, but well worth it, both for a glimpse of Lessig's cool, patchwork presentation style -- I'd heard it was great but never actually seen Lessig-slides in action -- and also for the framework he provides. He is an A+ presenter and an A++ thinker, and this is an A+++ subject.
Madness
Robin says,
We're on a path to irreversible confrontation with a country we know almost nothing about. The United States government has had no diplomats in Iran for almost 30 years. American officials have barely met with any senior Iranian politicians or officials. We have no contact with the country's vibrant civil society. Iran is a black hole to us -- just as Iraq had become in 2003.
Gahhh! How is it that such walls can endure?
October 22, 2007
Kurdiwha?
Robin says,
Have to admit, I have no idea what's going on with this Turkey/Kurdistan/Iraq thing. Current's Laura Ling explains. Oh man the world is complicated.
Also: Some terrific pictures of Kurdish rebels. A bit too terrific, in a way -- see my comments over on Current.com.
October 16, 2007
One Democracy
Robin says,
John Edwards' democracy reform platform is pretty terrific. The Citizen Congress sounds interesting; the public financing of congressional campaigns and universal broadband access sound necessary.
October 6, 2007
Burma and the Junta
Robin says,
Smart and revelatory piece on Burma's military rule by Seth Mydans in the NYT:
Foreigners who may hope to change this government, or to deal with it, must assess its stature in the country, its belief in its mission and an insular worldview and value system that may make communication difficult.Even if the ruling junta is removed, it is most likely to be replaced by another military government, analysts say, and even if some form of democracy is adopted, the military will still be the country’s driving force.
You can't just rip the guts out of things, even if the guts are, er, non-optimal.
For some reason I keep thinking of the Ship of Theseus though I know it's not exactly applicable...
September 11, 2007
We Can Imagine a Better Democracy
Robin says,
Sure, they're just words, but even so: Nice words. From UK prime minister Gordon Brown, via the civic-minded Peter Levine:
At this point, Brown begins to outline practical ideas for increasing citizen voice in policy. "We have already taken the step of publishing the legislative programme in draft, inviting comments and views, and for the last six months I have been discussing and working through how to do in a more consultative way that involves people in debating the issues that matter -- drugs, crime, antisocial behaviour, housing development or even foreign policy issues like Iraq where there are public discussions."The first step will be to "hold Citizens Juries round the country. The members of these juries will be chosen independently. Participants will be given facts and figures that are independently verified, they can look at real issues and solutions, just as a jury examines a case. And where these citizens juries are held the intention is to bring people together to explore where common ground exists."
Brown explains that "Citizens Juries are not a substitute for representative democracy, they are an enrichment of it. The challenge of reviving local democracy can only be met if we build new forms of citizen involvement to encourage them in our local services and in new ways of holding people who run our services to account. So we will expand opportunities for deliberation, we will extend democratic participation in our local communities."
The Citizen Juries sound similar to deliberative polling, an idea I've always liked. Honestly though, we don't even need anything as formal and involved as all that to get better at democracy. A little more openness would go a long way, along with a corps of legislators more interested in communicating than... whatever it is they're interested in now.
It's totally possible, especially if the internet keeps sort of reformatting social assumptions at the same rate it has been, but it is a project on the scale of a generation. Things won't magically get better in 2008. (Well: No, actually they will. But that's only because things are so bad right now. There will still be lots of work to do. Insert analogy about a house with leaky plumbing and bad insulation, but also, the roof's on fire, etc.)
September 3, 2007
The Sheltered Star
Robin says,
Historian Daniel Aaron on America:
To a nation hitherto self-contained and confident, the new responsibilities do not come easily. We have never bothered to understand alien ideas ('isms' were something to fear or deride), and 'selling America' had simply meant dispensing American largesse. We now see the extent of our involvement and the vulnerability of our talismans: natural resources and 'know-how.' We see that world problems are not merely American problems writ large, that it will take more than a little common sense and a few 'man to man' talks with the Russians to solve them. Finally, we can appreciate the degree to which our strengths and weaknesses as a people have been conditioned by the American past, how we have been blessed and victimized by our history. Because of our wealth and isolation and our vast inland empire, because of the advantages we have enjoyed as a result of European rivalries, we did not develop some of the qualities and abilities we now so desperately need.
Written in 1952.
It's just one salient bit from the latest edition of David Warsh's Economic Principals -- definitely worth a read. The last two grafs in particular are pretty tremendous.
August 19, 2007
Meta-Politics
Robin says,
Still undecided on my 2008 pick, as it is still 2007 and there's, er, no rush -- but I have to admit, Barack Obama's willingness to go meta and discuss the very framework of politics in the U.S. is pretty awesome.
Pragmatism, Politics, and God
Matt says,
Stop reading this post right now and go read Mark Lilla's stunning NYT Mag article adapted from his forthcoming book. The past year has seen a horde of devout atheists -- Dennett, Dawkins, Hitchens, Harris -- gathering arms against religion and its place in the civic sphere. But no matter how they title their books, Harris et al aren't speaking to a Christian nation, but to a small subset of fellow thinkers. Lilla's scholarship as summarized in this article feels like the scaffold for a bridge between the staunch secularists and the political theologists. Put him in a room with Reza Aslan, and you have the makings of a serious conversation, one that might begin to answer the question, "How do we live together?" Much better than this beautiful-but-doomed dialogue, at least.
Are you really still reading my rambling? GO READ LILLA. Then read No god but God. (Then read Rousseau's "Profession of Faith of a Savoyard Vicar," which I'd never heard of until reading Lilla's piece. It's fantastic.) Then get into a conversation with an open-minded person on the opposite side of the secularist/theologist divide.
August 11, 2007
The Challenge of Authoritarian Capitalism
Robin says,
Argh! Must read this Foreign Affairs article! But it is available only to paying subscribers! Oh well -- the blockquote's pretty good on its own:
Today's global liberal democratic order faces two challenges. The first is radical Islam -- and it is the lesser of the two challenges. Although the proponents of radical Islam find liberal democracy repugnant, and the movement is often described as the new fascist threat, the societies from which it arises are generally poor and stagnant. They represent no viable alternative to modernity and pose no significant military threat to the developed world. It is mainly the potential use of weapons of mass destruction -- particularly by nonstate actors -- that makes militant Islam a menace.The second, and more significant, challenge emanates from the rise of nondemocratic great powers: the West's old Cold War rivals China and Russia, now operating under authoritarian capitalist, rather than communist, regimes. Authoritarian capitalist great powers played a leading role in the international system up until 1945. They have been absent since then. But today, they seem poised for a comeback.
Authoritarian capitalist states, today exemplified by China and Russia, may represent a viable alternative path to modernity, which in turn suggests that there is nothing inevitable about liberal democracy's ultimate victory -- or future dominance.
The EU is also a noteworthy model. It's of course not authoritarian by any stretch, but it's not exactly democratic, either.
The question will soon be posed: Do we favor democracy simply because it is effective? Or do we favor it because it is, in some deeper sense, right? And are we willing to defend the latter proposition even if the first is subverted -- that is, even if nondemocratic systems demonstrate equal or greater effectiveness?
Not well-worded, but perhaps you get the idea.
My answer to the latter question, for the record, is yes. And you?
August 10, 2007
The World Heavyweight Champion... of Politics
Robin says,
I like the analogy of politicians as prizefighters near the end of the post. Well, actually: I don't like it... but I suspect it might possess some truth.
July 30, 2007
Liberals, Progressives, and the Future
Robin says,
Noah Millman on the temperamental difference between liberals and progressives over at the new American Scene. I interpret it thusly: Liberals like poetry; progressives like science fiction.
July 20, 2007
The Unitary Executive
Robin says,
Matthew Yglesias ruminates on the power recently claimed by the president. I'm struggling to understand the details. Critics are claiming it denies Congress its powers of oversight; but this bit from the WaPo seems to say otherwise:
Both chambers [of the Senate] also have an "inherent contempt" power, allowing either body to hold its own trials and even jail those found in defiance of Congress. Although widely used during the 19th century, the power has not been invoked since 1934 and Democratic lawmakers have not displayed an appetite for reviving the practice.
So, fine, the Bush Administration has poured all its hate, malice, etc. into the One Branch to Rule Them All. Isn't the procedure outlined above clearly what Congress should pursue? It sounds like a pretty powerful tool of oversight to me.
Anybody have any more sophisticated insight into this? Or pointers to more illuminating reporting?
(I know, I know, we never talk about this stuff on Snarkmarket! Something about the phrase "unitary executive" has just really captured my imagination. It's a bit theological, you know?)
July 16, 2007
'The Greatest Human Hero of the Twentieth Century'
Robin says,
Check out Brad DeLong's very detailed take on China's development, which includes this:
And in 1978 China had its first piece of great good luck in a long, long time--perhaps the first time some important chance broke right for China since the end of the Sung dynasty. China acquired as its paramount ruler one of the most devious and effective politicians of this or indeed any age, a man who was quite possibly the greatest human hero of the twentieth century: Deng Xiaoping. Deng sought to maintain the Communist Party oligarchy's control over China's politics while also seeking a better life for China's people, and he is guided by two principles: (i) be pragmatic ("what matters is not whether the cat is red or white, what matters is whether the cat catches mice), and (ii) be cautious ("cross the river by feeling for the stones at the bottom of the ford with your feet").
"The greatest human hero of the twentieth century" -- I dunno if it's right, but it is certainly bold and counter to any conventional wisdom. Also very clearly an economists' view of the hero: he of the greatest-net-positive.
July 2, 2007
What's More Fun on a Monday Than Political Poll Data Matrices?
Robin says,
Who needs campaign coverage when you've got Political Arithmetik?
I really like this new post showing polling trends for the major candidates in the first five primary states. It sort of crams it all onto one page in a grid of pseudo-sparklines -- I actually find it a very effective way of consuming the info. Better than having all the graphs overlaid, for sure.
Disclaimer: I know this is ridiculous. But I'm really grasping at straws to find ways to be interested in this election at this stage and it's the only thing that helps.
...And the Last Man
Robin says,
The Apologist beat me to the Fukuyama wrap-up. And then he posted a follow-up! With a one-two punch of post-neocon coverage like that, I think I better just leave it to him. Check it:
Quote of the night: (Fukuyama, exasperatedly) "The Project for a New American Century was basically Bill Kristol and a fax machine!"
In fact I don't actually have a lot to add. I was a bit disappointed by the lack of mea culpa in Fukuyama's talk. Not sure why I'm surprised: He still believes his thesis is basically true. And really "The End of History" does operate on a level much higher than that of mere decade-defining strategic disasters... It's explicitly a stab at a Universal History (when you see capital letters like that you know it's serious) with all the awesome/awful grandiosity that implies.
To Fukuyama's credit, he did spend a lot of time talking about how we'll know if he's wrong: If the EU never quite coalesces because nationalist/nativist forces overpower the urge for Leviathan Lite. If China never does democratize. If India goes nuts. If accessible WMDs turn out to be a big problem after all. If global warming wrecks the world.
Come to think of it, it was actually quite the parade of horrors. Good trick, Fukuyama... now we all hope you're right.
During the talk I texted this to myself, as is my habit: "The problem of the last man . . . We have a thin moral community . . . We want an identity that is distinct and not universal." Apparently I thought it was pretty important.
P.S. For the record, Snarkmarket is basically Matt Thompson and a fax machine.
June 22, 2007
Skyboxification
Robin says,
Pardon the byzantine link, but if you click here, choose "Launch Fora Player," then click on section four, "Philosophical Perspective of Democracy in the U.S.," (whew) you'll get a neat run-down of the "skyboxification" of American life from Michael Sandel, whose book Democracy's Discontent was and still is a big deal to me. I'd never heard him talk before and it's pretty fantastic.
June 13, 2007
The Lamest Duck
Robin says,
Another TIME.com slideshow: This time it's President Bush's recent trip to Europe. Most of the images aren't of Bush at all, though; they're of the weird moments and empty spaces that surround any State Visit.
No idea if this is intended, but it feels a lot like a photo op-ed. The pictures definitely seem to make an argument: about the hollowness of pomp, about the scene behind the TV cameras, about being alone in the world.
June 8, 2007
June 4, 2007
Cut the Flow of the Cola
Robin says,
The Apologist commented on my pizza concession, which reminded me that I wanted to give a shout out to his post on cola diplomacy. Who knew Sudan could lay claim to such a strategic resource?
"I want you to know that the gum arabic which runs all the soft drinks all over the world, including the United States, mainly 80 percent is imported from my country," the ambassador said after raising a bottle of Coca-Cola.
I love the world.
May 20, 2007
Database Democracy
Robin says,
"You look at the people you have to motivate, and what motivates them, and sometimes it's a negative message," said Blaise Hazelwood, another veteran of the 2004 Bush-Cheney campaign who served as political director for the Republican National Committee. She set up her business, Grassroots Targeting, in 2005, offering research to campaigns. She has begun branching out to corporate clients, including a major airline.
-- sums up more and more of our political process, especially on the (unsexy but crucial) state level. Campaigns are just database queries now.
I know, I know, it's just advertising -- smart, sophisticated, data-driven advertising -- but there's something so mechanistic about it. I think I prefer heavy-handed TV ads to this kind of stuff.
May 15, 2007
The CIA Has HR Problems, Too
Robin says,
So it looks like all the CIA's spies are all either really old or really young right now:
It can be plotted as two humps on a graph. At the beginning of the experience spectrum are the millennials, green, just learning the ropes, no more than a half-decade of experience under their belts. They make up more than 35 percent of the total intelligence workforce. At the far end is a large number of highly skilled, longtime employees, moving closer to retirement by the day. In between those two humps, where there should be a stockpile of experienced middle managers, the future leaders of the community, there is instead a deep, unsettling valley.
This bit is most disappointing to me:
The five-year human capital planning document concluded that "many employees across the [intelligence community] are looking for even stronger leadership, and leaders who will help them fulfill their potential."Such people are called mentors. The millennials crave them. And that leaves some old hands scratching their heads.
I feel like this goes way beyond the intelligence world. Whatever happened to mentorship? Even apprenticeship? Pretty rad idea that we've mostly abandoned -- perhaps unintentionally, in the course of abandoning the one-life, one-career model.
May 14, 2007
Bill
Robin says,
On the subject of election videos: This new one from the Clinton campaign has all the trappings of cheesiness -- old photos, weird music, a relaxed sitting-room environment -- but because it's Bill Clinton delivering the text, it's somehow amazing. I feel like in the complicated, computerized world of 2007, pure oratorical skill ought not to be such a big deal -- but it is.
May 9, 2007
It's... It's... Clever?
Robin says,
OMG. This is the first good political ad I've ever seen. It's for Bill Richardson. (Via Yglesias.)
Welcome to Free Baluchistan
Robin says,
AFWW blogs a Virginia Quarterly article about another should-probably-be-a-state in Central Asia. But more importantly the Apologist tracks down the craziest map of the Middle East ever. Via Strange Maps, apparently -- an interesting find.
Note: Snarkmarket does not condone or endorse the willy-nilly redrawing of national borders by armchair pundits. Snarkmarket does, however, condone and endorse the drawing of crazy maps.
May 2, 2007
Complicated Characters
Robin says,
I totally agree with Ross Douthat that this:
... the cast of characters in what is arguably the worst administration since Nixon's strikes me as devoid of literary interest.
...is totally wrong. This cast of characters -- Cheney, Rumsfeld, the Bushes -- is full of literary interest! Reading Barry Werth's 31 Days, it struck me how long and strange their story has been. And the cauldron of spite, idealism, conniving, and hubris that is Iraq: It's tragedy in the deepest sense.
But this is not a confessional crowd, and that's unlikely to change even after they're out of office, so it is precisely the job of the modern novelist (as opposed to the journalist, or even the historian) to give us some insight into their psyches.
A good, honest, complicated psychological novel about George W. Bush? I would read that in a second.
April 13, 2007
Democracy Deferred
Robin says,
Yeah yeah, I know nobody's interested in Bangladesh, but that's why I keep posting these links -- it's the seventh most populous country in the world! And it's a moderate Muslim state! Come on people!
In Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina is one of two women locked in a bitter, corrupt struggle for power that has spanned decades. Now she and other members of her party, the Awami League, stand accused of murder. Somehow I gotta believe the reaction in Bangladesh is something like: "Yeah... no kidding!"
There is actually no elected (or even quasi-elected) government at all in Bangladesh right now; since early this year it's been under the rule of an interim military government. They're the ones making the accusation, and cleaning house in general. Details from Foreign Policy.
Back in 2001, I remember hearing many, many Bangladeshis say all they really wanted was a Musharraf-style military dictator: a strong authoritarian who could ensure stability. Looks like they might just get it.
(Murder link via Activate, which is consistently sharp and surprising.)
March 10, 2007
Epistolary Espionage
Matt says,
The National Security Letter has always been a laughably frightening proposition, even for us post-privacy types. This is the one that FBI officials could issue legally requiring any organization to secretly hand over records on individuals. There may be an FBI file containing your work e-mails, bank records, and telephone contacts, and you will never know. Very Lives of Others.
Of course it would be revealed that the FBI's insidious use of the NSL has gone far beyond the boundaries permitted even by the licentious Patriot Act. To hear it described in the news reports, FBI agents are using NSLs like we use Google. One imagines a New Yorker cartoon depicting two agents chatting over coffee: "This guy asked me out on Yahoo. I NSL-ed him, he seems clean."
The WaPo's story has a chatty, charming tone to it: "The FBI collected intimate information about the lives of a population roughly the size of Bethesda's." "A report released yesterday by the department's Office of the Inspector General offers the first official glimpse into the use of that impressive tool, and the results, according to the report, are not pretty." It's maybe a Reagan-era East Berlin cocktail party vibe. Check it out.
February 28, 2007
Politics in an Age of Fantasy
Robin says,
I think this book -- Dream: Re-imagining Progressive Politics in an Age of Fantasy -- looks phenomenal interesting (initial surge of enthusiasm tempered by time). More from Boldtype.
February 26, 2007
OpenCongress
Robin says,
Super awesome new site from the makers of the Democracy Player. What's interesting is that all of this information was already available online -- it was just obfuscated. Eet eez ze power of design...
February 7, 2007
Well, They're Both Democracies
Robin says,
Ha: This post headlined "Say No! to Dynastic Politics" showed up in my RSS reader and I totally thought it was going to be about America. Oops.
February 6, 2007
The New Visual Rhetoric of Politics
Robin says,
This video of John Edwards' speech at the DNC Winter Meeting is well-constructed. I like the editing and I like the "video grain" -- it feels very YouTube-native. Early points to the Edwards campaign.
Update: This video response starts off a little dorky, but ends up being a really sharp media analysis. I love the internet.
January 25, 2007
Presidential Campaigns as Production Companies
Robin says,
Talking about presidential campaigns, David Weinberger says:
They're better models of TV production than of democracy in action.
He has a cool post up about John Edwards too.
January 24, 2007
A Senator's Schedule
Robin says,
It's a small thing, but still pretty awesome: Freshman senator Jon Tester of Montana is posting his schedule on his website. (Via Sunlight.)
Secretary of Stasis
Robin says,
Ze snarked her out, but I think Condoleezza Rice is at least a little bit right -- diplomatic change doesn't generally come via awesome charismatic dealmaking. In fact, diplomatic change doesn't generally come at all. Some things just go slow.
Until they go fast.
But it's rarely a diplomatic deal that's responsible for the acceleration. At best, diplomacy is the soft warm glow that incubates change. (At worst, it's the freezer that keeps it on ice.)
I read "Postwar" over the holidays -- it's a detailed but very readable history of Europe from 1945 to 2005 -- and it's amazing how much of the story consists of states just... waiting.
Decades.
And then, everything changes almost literally overnight.
January 16, 2007
Democrat Disintermediated
Robin says,
Let it not pass unremarked that Barack Obama pre-announced his presidential run via an embedded video on his website, at least nominally addressed to his supporters. I know that seems pretty boring and normal in the Age of YouTube. But if you think about it in broad historical context it's actually pretty wild.
And I contend it's just a small sign of the seismic shift we're about to see in campaigning. 2004, with all its online fundraising, was just the throat-clearing. 2008 is the new 1960.
Also: As long as I'm talking about him, how cool is it that Obama tapped Samantha Power as a foreign policy advisor? Can she run for president?
January 1, 2007
Hawks on the Brain
Robin says,
Are policymakers predisposed to believe their hawkish advisors more than the doves? Maybe -- and some pretty basic natural biases built in to our brains might help explain it. Foreign Policy mag, back with a vengeance.
December 29, 2006
A Thrilling Tale of Bureaucratic Infighting
Robin says,
Apropos of Gerald Ford's passing, let me recommend a weird book: 31 Days, by Barry Werth.
I picked it up randomly in a book store because the cover was so striking. But then I read the flap and, because I had just finished Rise of the Vulcans by James Mann, I was actually pretty fired up to snag another story of executive branch infighting.
Werth tells the story of Ford's first month in office, from the day he's sworn in to the day he pardons Nixon. It's actually a pretty revelatory look at how the White House -- any White House -- works.
My favorite scene is one where a young lawyer from Ford's team goes out to California to get Nixon to sign something. He finds him sitting at his desk in a dark room, alone, curtains drawn in the middle of the day. Nixon is happy for the attention and tries to give the lawyer a commemorative presidential watch. Whoah.
December 5, 2006
Techno-Triumphalist Takedown
Robin says,
Ezra Klein offers a good reminder: The internet only goes so far. The source post he links to is pretty sharp, too.
December 4, 2006
The Bubble
Robin says,
This short article about the Secret Service and the "complete 24-hour-a-day, 365-day-a-year protective envelope" it seeks to provide around the president is actually really interesting. And it makes me deeply sorry for the people who hold that office... they can never be lonely.
November 8, 2006
The Wit and Wisdom of Donald Rumsfeld
Robin says,
This is a pretty snarky photo essay for TIME! Familiar with the meme, of course, but have never seen it so well-executed.
Slide four sorta sums it all up, doesn't it?
Also: a somewhat less-snarky photo essay on China. You can get 'em in a feed, you know!
November 7, 2006
Freedom
Robin says,
This video is a pretty blunt instrument, but even so, it's the coolest thing I've seen so far this Election Day. Of course, the George Michael song is key.
And, importantly, the link was emailed to me by a random friend. In fact, I've gotten more election-related emails this time around than in any previous year. It almost feels like there might be some sort of public deliberation occurring...
October 4, 2006
Daily Show vs. Broadcast News?
Matt says,
Which has more substantive political coverage?
Would you believe neither? That's what a telecommunications professor at Indiana U. found when she analyzed the content of The Daily Show and put it up next to a network newscast. (Card-ial.)
October 2, 2006
You've Got to Read It With a British Accent
Robin says,
Tony Blair's recent speech to New Labour, besides carrying a rather appealing message, is an exemplar of brisk British rhetoric: lots of parataxis, one-word phrases, fragments. Charming.
Boring Revolutions Are the Best Kind
Robin says,
Romania and Bulgaria are in the EU now, by the way. I still think the slow, unsexy growth of the EU might be the sleeper story of our age.
Previously: Europe's culture and creativity.
September 24, 2006
Unresolved Nation of Consequence
Robin says,

Well-established China fascination here on Snarkmarket. I went to Orville Schell's Long Now talk on China last Friday (proof) and it was great. Even better, though, was Stewart Brand's email summary of the talk -- it amounts to a killer executive brief on China today. Encyclopedic but short.
Oh, and in the Q&A session, Schell confirmed: China's leaders really are all technocrats, and will continue to be for some time. In fact, getting involved in politics in China is a horrible career move if you ultimately aspire to, um, be involved in politics in China: It's too easy to make a misstep and remove yourself from the running completely. The whole political environment there is like a minefield, so fortune favors the slow.
Also: Pictures of Shanghai twenty years ago! (From which the image above is taken.)
September 4, 2006
The Aim of Governance?
Robin says,
What do you think of this, snarkatrons? Brad DeLong writes (emphasis mine) --
I am, as I said above, a reality-based center-left technocrat. I am pragmatically interested in government policies that work: that are good for America and for the world. My natural home is in the bipartisan center, arguing with center-right reality-based technocrats about whether it is center-left or center-right policies that have the best odds of moving us toward goals that we all share -- world peace, world prosperity, equality of opportunity, safety nets, long and happy lifespans, rapid scientific and technological progress, and personal safety. The aim of governance, I think, is to achieve a rough consensus among the reality-based technocrats and then to frame the issues in a way that attracts the ideologues on one (or, ideally, both) wings in order to create an effective governing coalition.
Is he right?
I have to admit, I don't totally hate the sound of it, but at the same time, it's a definition that seems to lean pretty heavily on the modern mandarinate and not enough on, you know, smart citizens.
August 30, 2006
Suspended Citizenship
Robin says,
Good post from Saheli on this situation:
[T]he United States has denied re- entry to two American citizens--one naturalized and one-native born--unless they first agree to be interrogated by the FBI abroad without a lawyer and take a polygraph test. They have not been charged with any crime.
As always with S.S.R. Datta, the analysis is nuanced and, it seems to me, correct.
Meet the Panopticon, Age 21
Robin says,
Bob Kerrey gets interviewed in Foreign Policy. Here's an interesting prediction:
FP: How will college students affect November's election and the U.S. presidential race two years from now?BK: They're likely to have a very large impact as a result of this 'macaca' type of an event [involving Sen. George Allen]. They're going to be out with cameras and tape recorders and blogs, and they'll be carrying a larger part of the debate itself. I think it will likely be a relatively small fraction of young people who turn out and vote. [But] in the blogosphere and beyond, there will be something that will be comparable to this remarkable story of George Allen -- it was, I think, a 20-year-old who [broke that story]. I think you'll see a lot more of that.
Worth reading.
August 9, 2006
It's Inevitable
Robin says,
I was just checking out Google Video's new ad system and happened to click on this video, a Charlie Rose episode featuring Thomas Friedman.
And it struck me: This man is going to run for political office.
Maybe not soon, but some day. Just listen to the way he talks! And come on, he's rich!
When it happens, just remember: Snarkmarket called it.
July 23, 2006
Justice and Statehood
Robin says,
Peter Levine, whose blog is one of my very favorites these days, has a smart and well-wrought post on Israel and the burdens of being a democracy.
P.S. Look out, the next Snarkmarket post is about reality-show superheroes! It might make your head explode if you read it too soon after this one...
July 19, 2006
The Green Lantern Theory of Geopolitics
Robin says,
It's more fun pop-meets-policy from Matt Yglesias. The best part is that he really knows his Green Lantern lore.
July 10, 2006
An API for Political Influence
Robin says,
Programmerjournalists take note! The Sunlight Foundation is putting together an API for state-level campaign finance data. Seems like you could craft a pretty cool localized EPIC-style political story with this kind of resource, yeah? The data could display inline... pulled into the story via API calls... and would always be up-to-date... *drool*
July 5, 2006
Bill Gates... for President?
Robin says,
James Fallows (one of my all-time favorites) is part of The Atlantic's crew liveblogging the Aspen Ideas Festival. Here's an interesting note on the prospects for an independent presidential candidate sometime soon. (For the record I think Bill Gates as candidate is a horrible idea. But it makes a good headline!)
June 20, 2006
The Dick Cheney Code

I am now officially more fascinated by Dick Cheney than by any other member of our government.
Two data points.
One: James Mann's book The Rise of the Vulcans from two years ago. It is a transcendent work of journalism that traces the careers of Bush's foreign policy team: Cheney, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, Rice, and (less relevant now) Colin Powell and his deputy Richard Armitage.
Mann, a longtime LA Times reporter, pulls off the central trick of long-form, public-service journalism here: He pulls back the skin of our world so you can see all the blood and muscles just beneath the surface. And it all seems a little less strange because suddenly you understand how it works. (Other favorite examples of the genre are The Big Test and Fast Food Nation.)
So the book is great overall, but it was Mann's reporting on Cheney that really struck me, both for all it reveals -- Cheney's incredibly long career, his devotion to public service, his scary skill at bureaucratic infighting -- and for all it fails to reveal: Why was this Cheney's path? What drives this guy? Where did he come from and what was his vision for himself?
I mean, Rumsfeld I get. He is a charismatic politician/bureaucrat who wanted to be president. All the rest seem to fit pre-existing archetypes, too: The scholar turned policymaker. The soldier turned diplomat. But not Cheney. And come to think of it, maybe he doesn't fit simply because he is so powerful.
Two: Reviews of Ron Suskind's new book, The One Percent Doctrine (NYT, WaPo), tell the story of a vice president even more powerful than we thought. And, I mean, we already thought we was really powerful.
More than any of the other foreign-policy Vulcans, and certainly more than Bush, Cheney seems to me like such an interesting puzzle. Politics and (crazy limitless) power aside, there is a man there, and boy would I love to know what makes him tick.
(Will Frontline tell me? Maybe!)

A House Depleted

The best article in the brand-new Democracy: A Journal of Ideas is Brad Carson's review (reg. req'd) of a book called The House: The History of the House of Representatives by Robert Remini. And it is so good because it is so sad:
The distance from [Henry] Clay to [Dennis] Hastert can only be measured along a steep descent. It is for this reason that Remini’s new history of the House of Representatives reads like a chronicle of degeneration, a well-wrought record of the decay of American politics and, perhaps, of American character, too. The House once was the very heart of democracy; such was its prestige that Clay himself left the Senate to seek election to what he called the "people’s chamber."
Carson is particularly well-suited to write this review because... he was a congressman! As he says, he reads Remini's book as the tale of an institution that was really good and interesting for a while -- the first half of the 19th century, Clay's time -- but has been sliding into the sea ever since.
... Read more ....
June 12, 2006
The New Politics
Robin says,
Over on TPMCafe, Stirling Newberry has a report on the YearlyKos conference that reads like a rallying cry. Awesome? I think so but have not fully decided yet.
May 19, 2006
The Reality-Based Conservative, Part II
Matt says,
Sad that Peter Viereck died. Good that The New Yorker put the awesome article about him online. (See also.)
February 9, 2006
Politicizing a Funeral
Matt says,
And yet they died nobly. They are the martyred heroines of a holy crusade for freedom and human dignity. And so this afternoon in a real sense they have something to say to each of us in their death. They have something to say to every minister of the gospel who has remained silent behind the safe security of stained-glass windows. They have something to say to every politician [Audience:] (Yeah) who has fed his constituents with the stale bread of hatred and the spoiled meat of racism. They have something to say to a federal government that has compromised with the undemocratic practices of southern Dixiecrats (Yeah) and the blatant hypocrisy of right-wing northern Republicans. (Speak) They have something to say to every Negro (Yeah) who has passively accepted the evil system of segregation and who has stood on the sidelines in a mighty struggle for justice. They say to each of us, black and white alike, that we must substitute courage for caution. They say to us that we must be concerned not merely about who murdered them, but about the system, the way of life, the philosophy which produced the murderers. Their death says to us that we must work passionately and unrelentingly for the realization of the American dream.
January 29, 2006
Hierarchy of Bribes
An interesting anecdote over on David Warsh's great Economic Principals site: He's talking about corruption, and brings up Peru. When Alberto Fujimori was elected president there in 1990, he installed a guy named Vladimiro Montesinos Torres as his security chief. They totally took over the country:
They bribed politicians, judges, bureaucrats, journalists, business executives -- more than 1,600 of them were kept on a regular payroll.
But here's the really interesting part:
Montesinos' great gift to economic science, however, was that he kept meticulous records. He required recipients of his bribes to sign receipts. [...] [Two Stanford researchers] pored over the records, compiling what they described as price list for bribery, an instrument that could be used to measure the strength of countervailing forces that Montesinos was systematically disabling. They wrote, "The size of the bribes measured what he was willing to pay to buy off those who could check his power."What they discovered was a well-demarcated hierarchy. A politician was worth slightly more than a judge. But the owner of a television station commanded about a hundred times more than a politician -- five times more than the total of all opposition politicians' bribes. "Each channel takes $2 million monthly, but it is the only way," he told a subordinate. "That is why we have won, because we have sacrificed in this way." Newspaper bribes, while higher than those of judges and politicians, were much less than television. The difference had to do with scale. Montesinos explained on tape: "What do I care about El Comercio? They have an 80,000 print run. 80,000 newspapers is shit. What worries me is Channel 4... It reaches 2 million people."
No word on bribing websites... oh well. I guess broadband isn't exactly big in Peru yet.
Here's the kicker:
(It was a small independent television station, one that Montesinos had never bribed, that aired the tape that finally brought the Fujimori regime crashing down.)

December 16, 2005
Retail Politics
Matt says,
Jay Bookman tells it like it is:
Think back a little more than a year ago, to the political campaigns of 2004. One of the hottest issues in presidential debates and congressional campaigns was the threat to traditional marriage posed by gay people seeking the right to wed. ...But a year later, it seems pertinent to ask: Have you heard or read a single word about a federal gay-marriage amendment since the election?
October 28, 2005
Scott McClellan, You Paying Attention?
Matt says,
I was very impressed by how lucid and straightforward Patrick Fitzgerald's press conference was today. My eyes have insta-glazed for two years now whenever I've encountered the words "Valerie Plame." He managed to lay it all out in a way that makes me feel I actually understand what just happened. Of course, he can probably do that better than anyone since he's apparently the only person in the world who actually knows what happened, but still. Good show.
August 18, 2005
The Same Thing He Does Every Night, Pinky
Matt says,
Today's read of the day is this New York Magazine profile of Bill Clinton. This man has got to be the best real-life tragic hero of the last three decades:
I ask Clinton why the Bush administration has gotten much softer press coverage than he did. He gives a variety of explanations, including September 11 and the rightward drift of the media. Then he gives an explanation that’s surprisingly tart: “The Bush people didn’t have anybody working for the White House who, as far as I could tell, had an inexplicable, craving need that a lot of the young people did who worked for me in that first year to talk to the press—even when they didn’t know what they were talking about.”Wow. Kids, you know who you are.
July 19, 2005
Political Videos
Matt says,
From Robin's alma mater comes this excellent Flash repository of footage related to political events. Try looking at political ads with the theme of flip-flopping and viewing Hubert Humphrey's "Wind" ad attacking Nixon next to G.W. Bush's "Blowing" ad attacking Kerry. (Via David Weinberger.)
July 11, 2005
Mum's the Word

When I read the transcript of today's White House press briefing with Scott McClellan, I knew someone was going to pull this "McClellan's a rhetorical genius" bit. Nonsense. People did the same thing with Ari F., and I call foul. Dogged question avoidance does not make one the second coming of Cicero.
In fact, from The New Republic last March (subscription required):
Fleischer was in this sense the perfect Bush press secretary. His ability to prevaricate and dodge, without betraying himself through physical or verbal tics, represented a kind of genius. Alas, what came so easily to Fleischer utterly eludes McClellan. If the two of them ever sat down at a poker table, Fleischer would probably walk away with all of McClellan's money and the shirt off his back.
Again, nonsense. In many of Fleischer's most heated press exchanges, he reverted to the exact same rote repetition thing McClellan does here. Both men do a perfectly functional and transparent job of stonewalling the White House press corps. Wouldn't a true rhetorical genius be so slick and insinuating about his point that you wouldn't even recognize it was just the same thing with different wrapping paper?
... Read more ....
July 1, 2005
June 4, 2005
The Real United Nations
Robin says,

Try this on for size: The U.N. as robust war-fighting alliance. According to Dan Plesch, that's how it really began:
The "United Nations" had been the official name for the coalition fighting the axis powers since January 1942, when Roosevelt and Churchill had led twenty-six nations, including the Soviet Union and China, in a "Declaration by United Nations".
Lots of cool images. Link via MeFi.
February 25, 2005
Secretary of State Ninjas
Robin says,
Condi Rice kicks it in black stiletto boots. Cool outfit.
(Note to WaPo: This should have been a picture with a caption, not a frickin' 700-word story.)
February 19, 2005
Bush ♥ Clinton
Matt says,
Is The New York Times celebrating the Presidents Day weekend with touchy-feely stories about Presidents and their buddies?
February 10, 2005
Governing Without Google
Robin says,
Here's a fun anecdote and sharp observation from Neil McIntosh of The Guardian. Go read it, it's short and worth the click.
That's My Kind of Headline
Rebecca MacKinnon, who is approx. my hero, sums it all up:
North Korean nukes? What's up with that?
She points to the super-great North Korea zone blog. It's broad, it's deep, it's linked like crazy: I wish there was a site like this for every country. Or at least all the sketchy ones.
If you go to NKzone you'll find, among other things, this short run-down of the nuke thing by MacK. herself.
Also: North Korean propaganda posters!

January 25, 2005
Chosen People Without a Narrative
Things I love:
- Multi-book reviews that synthesize and illuminate.
- Sweeping geo-socio-economic analyses.
- Apparently, Europe.
I am led to this conclusion by Tony Judt's great article in The New York Review of Books. It riffs on a recent spate of books that look at Europe, the U.S., and all the blue sky between them these days.
You know the outline: Americans work 24/7; Europeans take vacations with their healthy children. America spews CO2; Europe brews coffee. While dancing.
But the thing is it's true. There's a parade of statistics marching behind the contention that America is the weird rural cousin in this family. Salient: "[T]he EU has 87 prisoners per 100,000 people; America has 685," Judt notes. Eep. Erk. Glmph.
One of the books under discussion is Jeremy Rifkin's "The European Dream," which I gotta admit sounds a little flaky -- but that's okay; I'm a little flaky, too. And just check out this line:
With only our religious fervor to hold on to, we have become a "chosen people" without a narrative -- making America potentially a more dangerous and lonely place to be.
That's good stuff.
... Read more ....
November 4, 2004
Let There Be Light
Robin says,
Well, I think this page basically shows that everyone with electricity voted for Kerry.
Ooh, so maybe that's why the Democratic candidates are always pushing for alternative energy? More porch-lights = more progressives!
Okay, this probably didn't deserve to be an entire post.
September 28, 2004
Who Will Vote?
So whenever someone asks me "Robin, who will win the election??" (and believe me... there is no one better to ask) I say something like: "Kerry, because it's all going to come down to who votes in Ohio (and, okay, Florida and Pennsylvania) and the Democrats will get more people to come to the polls than the Republicans."
I base this certitude mostly on the fact that my friend Jim Secreto is on the ground with the Kerry campaign in Ohio. And come on, Jim ran for and won the senior class presidency at Troy Athens High School. This deal is sealed, dudes.
But now there is some slightly more reliable verification, via New Donkey:
On the front page of the Sunday NYT, Ford Fessenden reports on a Times study of registration numbers in the tw

